national climate assessment summary


Ch. Certain types of extreme weather events with links to climate change have become more frequent and/or intense, including prolonged periods of heat, heavy downpours, and, in some regions, floods and droughts.

Since the late 19th century, however, humans have released an increasing amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels and, to a lesser extent, deforestation and land-use change. Adaptation entails proactive decision-making and investments by individuals, businesses, and governments to counter specific risks from climate change that vary from place to place. Valued aspects of regional heritage and quality of life tied to the natural environment, wildlife, and outdoor recreation will change with the climate, and as a result, future generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems in ways that are much different than today. The other major category of response options is known as “adaptation,” and refers to actions to prepare for and adjust to new conditions, thereby reducing harm or taking advantage of new opportunities.

None of these sectors, however, exists in isolation. Like previous climate assessments, NCA4 relies on a suite of possible scenarios to evaluate the implications of different climate outcomes and associated impacts throughout the 21st century.
Pteropods, or “sea butterflies,” are eaten by a variety of marine species ranging from tiny krill to salmon to whales.

1: Our Globally Changing Climate. Water quality is also diminishing in many areas, particularly due to sediment and contaminant concentrations after heavy downpours. In some regions, prolonged periods of high temperatures associated with droughts contribute to conditions that lead to larger wildfires and longer fire seasons.
Mitigation and adaptation activities can be considered complementary strategies—mitigation efforts can reduce future risks, while adaptation actions can minimize the consequences of changes that are already happening as a result of past and present greenhouse gas emissions.Many climate change impacts and economic damages in the United States can be substantially reduced through global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions complemented by regional and local adaptation efforts Since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) in 2014, a growing number of states, cities, and businesses have pursued or expanded upon initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the scale of adaptation implementation across the country has increased. Assessments like this one explicitly address scientific uncertainty associated with findings and use specific language to express it to improve relevance to risk analysis and decision-making Of the two RCPs predominantly referenced throughout this report, the lower scenario (RCP4.5) envisions about 85% lower greenhouse gas emissions than the higher scenario (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century The effects of different future greenhouse gas emissions levels on global climate become most evident around 2050, when temperature (Figure 1.3) Annual average temperatures in the United States are projected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Executive Summary: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I View As a key part of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the U.S. Risks posed by climate variability and change vary by region and sector and by the vulnerability of people experiencing impacts. Precipitation patterns are changing, sea level is rising, the oceans are becoming more acidic, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events are increasing. More directly, our national security is impacted by damage to U.S. military assets such as roads, runways, and waterfront infrastructure from extreme weather and climate-related events (Figures 1.8 and 1.9). More information about the models and scenarios used in this report can be found in Taken together, this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming, and over the last half century, this warming has been driven primarily by human activity. These benefits are not always easy to quantify, but they support jobs, economic growth, health, and human well-being. These and other changes are expected to increasingly impact water resources, air quality, human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, energy and transportation infrastructure, and many other natural and human systems that support communities across the country.

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